Participants of the workshop were leading scholars and researchers in the fields of economics, politics, and diplomacy from many prestigious research institutions including the Development Strategy Institute, the Central Institute for Economic Management, the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (Ministry of Planning and Investment); Institute of Chinese Studies, Vietnam Institute of Economics, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, Centre for Analysis and Forecasting (Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences); Department of General Economic Affairs, Department of Northeast Asian Affairs, Department of Foreign Policy, Institute for Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies (Ministry of Foreign Affairs); lecturers and students of many universities, etc.
In the opening remark, Dr. Nguyen Duc Thanh, Director of VEPR, delivered a short speech. This is the fourth report in a series of China Periodical Macroeconomic Reports produced biannually by the research team in VEPR’s Chinese Economic Studies Program (VCES). After that, Dr. Pham Sy Thanh, Director of VCES, presented the contents of the Report focusing on the first 6 months of 2014 and impacts on Vietnam.The report consists of three main parts: (1) China’s macro-economic situation in the first half of 2014, (2) The main problems of China’s economy and (3) The main macroeconomic policies in the first half of 2014.
The key macroeconomic indicators:
The report showed that economic growth has remained at a quite high level. GDP was 7.4% in the first quarter of 2014, 7.5 in the second and 7.4 on average. China Government has launched many fundamental policies on economic reform and China’s economy has gone through a period of important adjustments. Service sectors’ proportion has continued to surpass that of industry (46.6% and 46%, respectively). The China’s economic growth rate has been equivalent to that of key developed economies: US and EU have substantially recovered; American private spending has contributed to the strong growth of the nation; EU has improved slightly thanks to the financial – monetary cooperation among the region though that of the South has remained weak; Japanese rebound has gradually slowed down.
Of inflation: CPI in the first half of the year was only 2.3, being 0.1 percent smaller compared to the same time of the following year and smaller than the target figure of 3.5%. The food index has taken lead of CPI.
Investment areas have played a central role in remaining Chinese economic growth, especially after the crisis of 2008 and the adjustment stage.
In terms of monetary market: Semi – yearly M2 supply was 14.7% (larger than yearly target of 13%). The total M2 supply in the first half of the year was RMB 121000 billion. Money supply has increased largely to support for growth and the number of 14.7% had pass PBoC’s expectation.
Of main issues on Chinese economy in the first half of 2014: The key problems consist of (1) It is necessary to make the economy stable and (2) It is required to rebalance the economy.
The report provided several policies so as to cope with the situation in the first half of the year, including the small – scale stimulate policies which are well – oriented. The country needs to change the relationship with Russia to a comprehensive strategic partnership, to commit to raise bilateral trade up to US 100 billion in 2015 and US 200 billion in 2020; to strengthen cooperation with Russia in the high – tech areas such as civil airplane manufacturing; to promote the process of the signed gas contract; to prepair for the whole – package partnership plan to provide gas from Russia to China.
Dr. Pham Sy Thanh, Director of VCES presenting the Report
The second part was the presentation by Dr. Bui Trinh on Changes of Vietnamese – Chinese economic structure and effects on Vietnam. The research is based on the method of input – output analysis to assess the spread impact of ingredients in the total demand on income and manufacturing value of Vietnam, and in the same time make a comparison to that of China. According to the report, the final demand of Vietnam has a smaller spread impact than China.
Next, the report mentioned several possible impact scenarios about economic activities between Vietnam and China in order to assess negative influences of those impacts on Vietnamese economic growth. Those scenarios pointed out a range of detrimental impacts on GDP; however, if Vietnam could take the most use of the opportunity and actively adjust manufacturing and export structure, Vietnam’s GDP still has a great chance to improve.
Dr. Bui Trinh presenting the Report
The China Periodic Macroeconomic Report received a lot of precious feedback from senior sexpertss. The policy makers also suggested that the Report could have some thematic studies to have some more in-depth content.
Several images of the workshop: